Washington Post 082724: In 1990, about 10 percent of the labor force was made up of workers over 55. Now, this share is about 23 percent, and it is expected to stay around there over the next decade.
The yearly growth rate of global population peaked around 1965 at 2%/year, is now bout 1% and expected to decline to about .5% by 2050. In richer countries, population growth has already decelerated below .3%. It is no coincidence that Thomas Malthus, “Essay on the Principle of Population” was published in 1789. Better hygiene reduced mortality from disease and better transportation infrastructure reduced famine. Death rates declined by birth rates stayed constant until the early-20th C when in richer countries the 2-child family became the middle-class ideal. Family planning and then hormonal contraceptives appearing in the 1960s caused birth rates to start declining and population growth rates to approach zero. Meanwhile, population growth exploded in poorer countries after the mid-20th C as they embraced better hygiene and benefited from Western medicine. But poorer countries have now reached a phase of declining birth rates and fertility. Fertility rates, the average number of children per woman, peaked in the 1960s for North America, Europe, Latin America, Asia, and Oceania, and in the 1970s for Africa. Fertility declined with better hygiene, medicine and child mortality. Population growth became a topic of concern and entered broad consciousness in the 1960s, marked by milestone publications, “the Population Bomb” by Paul Erlich in 1968, “The Limits to Growth” by the Club of Rome in 197s, and “World Population Plan of Action” of the UN in 1974.
People are having fewer kids, not because they’re expensive (Gary Becker, on kids as an economic good) but because life is losing its sense of meaning, and who wants to bring up kids without that sense. Atlanticmonthly.com 122224 “The Real Reason People Aren’t Having Kids”, cites Anastasia Berg & Rachel Wiseman “What are Children For? On Ambivalence and Choice”.
Urbanization increased dramatically in mid-20th century, and with it the demographic character of cities, globally. Industrialization and economic growth led to the growth of manufacturing and especially service industries in urban centers, attracting rural populations while at the same time technological innovations reduced the need for labor in agriculture and the build out of transportation infrastructure made it easier for people to migrate to cities. Service economies are founded on relationships and human interaction, versus manufacturing which makes material things, and the nature of work shifted away from physical labor to services requiring mental and emotional skills, another metamorphic change in keeping with society’s transition into adolescence. The effect was particularly strong in developing countries experiencing rapid industrialization. Cities became centers for education, healthcare and cultural opportunities, and life expectancy rose. Global transportation and communications infrastructures turned cities into melting pots of global cultures, a dramatic change from the more homogeneous cultural attributes of cities early in the century. Urban centers became more and more alike around the world, with intermixtures of cultures, a metamorphic change from the greater homogeneity of urban cultures in the early 20th century. Mega-cities emerged and became key nodes in a global network and system of urban culture. City populations became older, better educated, and wealthier. Women entered the work force in equal numbers as men, became empowered, had fewer children as childhood mortality decreased, and family life became more difficult and tended to disintegrate. And poverty and income inequality also became more pronounced. The impacts of rapid urbanization continue to shape the world in the 21st century, with ongoing discussions on sustainable development, smart cities, and inclusive urban planning..
Is urban life the sexually charged form of social structure?
Demographics Notes:
Concerns now are growing income inequality, poverty and the danger of famine, exhaustion and pollution of natural resources essential to human survival, and migration pressures from the poor South to the rich North. Income inequality increased as poorer countries and poorer cohorts in richer countries were slower to reduce family size and wealth accumulated increasingly among the rich. The danger of famine is not the inadequacy of overall global food production, but the distributional problem of getting that food to where it is needed, in the face of aridification affecting the poor global south more than the rich North. Income inequality and famine danger are problems of distribution, be it income or food, and are relational in nature rather than matters of overall global wealth or food production, and as such they are characteristic of societal adolescence.
Chat: The global population growth rate has been decreasing over the past few decades. However, the world population itself continues to increase due to the phenomenon of population momentum—the population continues to grow even when birth rates decline because of a large cohort of young people entering reproductive age.
Several factors contribute to the overall trend of declining population growth rates:
- Fertility Rates: Fertility rates (average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years) have been decreasing in many parts of the world. Improved education, access to contraception, and changing societal norms contribute to lower fertility rates.
- Urbanization: As more people move to urban areas, there is often a shift in lifestyle and family size, leading to lower fertility rates.
- Economic Development: Higher levels of economic development are associated with lower fertility rates. As countries develop, there is often a transition towards smaller family sizes.
- Education: Increased access to education, especially for women, tends to be correlated with lower fertility rates.
- Family Planning: Improved access to family planning services and awareness about family planning methods contribute to a reduction in population growth.
One clear sign of the shift in the workforce population is the growing income gap between younger and older workers. Economists Nicola Bianchi and Matteo Paradisi have found that neither income inequality nor changes in types of jobs is to blame. Instead, it has to do almost entirely with generational gridlock.
Chat urbanization:
The 20th century witnessed unprecedented global urbanization trends, marked by a significant shift in population from rural to urban areas. Several factors contributed to this phenomenon, transforming societies and economies around the world. Here are key aspects of global urbanization trends in the 20th century:
- Industrialization and Economic Growth:
- The early 20th century saw the rise of industrialization, leading to the growth of manufacturing and service industries in urban centers. This shift attracted rural populations to cities in search of employment opportunities and improved living standards.
- Technological Advancements:
- Technological innovations, such as the development of transportation infrastructure (railways, automobiles) and communication networks, played a crucial role in urbanization. Improved accessibility made it easier for people to migrate to urban areas.
- Rural-Urban Migration:
- The pull of urban opportunities and the push of rural challenges (such as agricultural mechanization reducing the need for labor) resulted in significant rural-to-urban migration. This trend was particularly evident in developing countries experiencing rapid industrialization.
- Demographic Changes:
- Population growth, coupled with increased life expectancy, contributed to the demographic shift towards urban areas. Cities became centers for not only economic activities but also education, healthcare, and cultural opportunities.
- Urban Planning and Infrastructure Development:
- Governments and urban planners responded to the growing urban populations with extensive infrastructure projects. This included the construction of roads, bridges, housing complexes, and public services to accommodate the increasing demand.
- Megacities and Urban Agglomerations:
- The 20th century witnessed the emergence of megacities—urban areas with populations exceeding ten million. Examples include Tokyo, New York, and Mumbai. These cities often became hubs of finance, culture, and innovation.
- Social Changes:
- Urbanization brought about profound social changes. Increased diversity, cultural exchanges, and the blending of different traditions were common in urban settings. However, challenges such as slums, poverty, and inequality also became more pronounced.
- Environmental Impacts:
- The rapid pace of urbanization often led to environmental challenges, including pollution, deforestation, and the loss of biodiversity. Efforts to address these issues gained momentum later in the century with a growing awareness of environmental sustainability.
- Post-World War II Urbanization:
- The post-World War II period witnessed significant urbanization in Europe and Japan as nations rebuilt their economies. The baby boom in many Western countries further fueled urban growth.
- Globalization and Urban Centers:
- The latter half of the century saw increased globalization, with urban centers becoming key nodes in global networks. Cities became vital not only for national economies but also as part of a interconnected global economy.